Wiley Online Library

    Skip to main content
    Log in / Register

Advertisement

    Go to old article view

    Go To article navigation

    Navigate this article
        Abstract
        REFERENCES
        Related Content
        Citing Literature

Econometrica
Explore this journal >

    Econometrica
    Explore this journal >

Econometrica

    Previous article in issue: Measuring the Implications of Sales and Consumer Inventory Behavior

    Previous article in issue: Measuring the Implications of Sales and Consumer Inventory Behavior
    Next article in issue: Bootstrap Algorithms for Testing and Determining the Cointegration Rank in VAR Models

    Next article in issue: Bootstrap Algorithms for Testing and Determining the Cointegration Rank in VAR Models

View  issue TOC
Volume 74, Issue 6
November 2006
Pages 1675–1698
Bounds in Competing Risks Models and the War on Cancer
Authors

    Bo E. Honoré,
        1 Dept. of Economics, Princeton University, Princeton, NJ 08544-1021, U.S.A.   honore@princeton.edu http://www.princeton.edu/~honore , 2 Dept. of Economics and Woodrow Wilson School of Public and International Affairs, Princeton University, Princeton, NJ 08544-1013, U.S.A.   alleras@princeton.edu http://www.princeton.edu/~alleras
    Search for more papers by this author
    and 1 Adriana Lleras-Muney 2
        1 Dept. of Economics, Princeton University, Princeton, NJ 08544-1021, U.S.A.   honore@princeton.edu http://www.princeton.edu/~honore , 2 Dept. of Economics and Woodrow Wilson School of Public and International Affairs, Princeton University, Princeton, NJ 08544-1013, U.S.A.   alleras@princeton.edu http://www.princeton.edu/~alleras
    Search for more papers by this author

    First published: 1 November 2006 Full publication history
    DOI: 10.1111/j.1468-0262.2006.00722.x View/save citation
    Cited by: 30 articles
    Citation tools
        Set citation alert
        Check for new citations
        Citing literature

    This is a shorter version of Honoré and Lleras-Muney (2005). More detail and additional information can also be found in the supplement to this paper, Honoré and Llears-Muney (2006), (hereafter referred to as HL). We thank Jaap Abbring, Josh Angrist, Eric J. Feuer, Marco Manacorda, Costas Meghir, Hilary Sarneski-Hayes, researchers at the National Cancer Institute, and seminar participants at CAM at the University of Copenhagen, London School of Economics, MIT, NBER Summer Institute, Princeton University, University College London, and the Harvard–MIT–Boston University Health seminar, and two anonymous referees for their suggestions. This research was supported by the National Institute on Aging, Grant K12-AG00983 to the NBER (Lleras-Muney) and by the NSF Grant SES-0417895 to Princeton University, The Gregory C. Chow Econometric Research Program at Princeton University, and the Danish National Research Foundation, through CAM at the University of Copenhagen (Honoré).

Abstract

In 1971, President Nixon declared war on cancer. Thirty years later, many declared this war a failure: the age-adjusted mortality rate from cancer in 2000 was essentially the same as in the early 1970s. Meanwhile the age-adjusted mortality rate from cardiovascular disease fell dramatically. Since the causes that underlie cancer and cardiovascular disease are likely dependent, the decline in mortality rates from cardiovascular disease may partially explain the lack of progress in cancer mortality. Because competing risks models (used to model mortality from multiple causes) are fundamentally unidentified, it is difficult to estimate cancer trends. We derive bounds for aspects of the underlying distributions without assuming that the underlying risks are independent. We then estimate changes in cancer and cardiovascular mortality since 1970. The bounds for the change in duration until death for either cause are fairly tight and suggest much larger improvements in cancer than previously estimated.

    Enhanced PDF
    Standard PDF (315.4 KB)

Ancillary
Article Information
DOI
10.1111/j.1468-0262.2006.00722.x

    View/save citation

Format Available
Full text: PDF
Keywords

    Bounds;
    competing risks;
    cancer;
    cardiovascular

Publication History

    Issue online: 1 November 2006
    Version of record online: 1 November 2006
    Manuscript received November, 2004; final revision received June, 2006.

REFERENCES

    Abbring, J. H. , and G. J. Van Den Berg ( 2003 ): “ The Identifiability of the Mixed Proportional Hazards Competing Risks Model ,” Journal of the Royal Statistical Society, Ser. B , 65 , 701 – 710 . [1681].
        Wiley Online Library |
        Web of Science® Times Cited: 19 |
        Go here for SFX
    Bailar, J. C. , and H. L. Gornik ( 1997 ): “ Cancer Undefeated ,” The New England Journal of Medicine , 336 , 1569 – 1574 . [1675].
        CrossRef |
        PubMed |
        Web of Science® Times Cited: 239 |
        Go here for SFX
    Balke, A. , and J. Pearl ( 1997 ): “ Bounds on Treatment Effects from Studies with Imperfect Compliance ,” Journal of the American Statistical Association , 92 , 1171 – 1176 . [1676].
        CrossRef |
        Web of Science® Times Cited: 59 |
        Go here for SFX
    Berrington, A. , and I. Diamond ( 2000 ): “ Marriage or Cohabitation: A Competing Risks Analysis of the First-Partnership Formation among the 1958 Birth Cohort ,” Journal of the Royal Statistical Society, Ser. A , 163 , 127 – 152 . [1676].
        Wiley Online Library |
        Web of Science® Times Cited: 11 |
        Go here for SFX
    Blundell, R. , A. Gosling , H. Ichimura , and C. Meghir ( 2006 ): “ Changes in the Distribution of Male and Female Wages Accounting for Employment Composition Using Bounds ,”Discussion Paper 1350 (revised), IZA [1681].
    Booth, A. L. , and S. E. Satchell ( 1995 ): “ The Hazards of Doing a PhD: An Analysis of Completion and Withdrawal Rates of British PhD Students in the 1980s ,” Journal of the Royal Statistical Society, Ser. A , 158 , 297 – 318 . [1676].
        CrossRef |
        Web of Science® Times Cited: 19 |
        Go here for SFX
    CDC ( 1999 ): “ Decline in Deaths from Heart Disease and Stroke, United States, 1900-1999 ,”Center for Disease Control, Washington , DC . [1675].
    Chiang, C. L. ( 1991 ): “ Competing Risks in Mortality Analysis ,” Annual Reviews of Public Health , 12 , 281 – 307 . [1676].
        CrossRef |
        PubMed |
        CAS |
        Web of Science® Times Cited: 50 |
        Go here for SFX
    Cox, D. R. ( 1962 ): Renewal Theory . London : Methuen. [1679].
        Go here for SFX
    Cox, D. R. ( 1972 ): “ Regression Models and Life-Tables ,” Journal of the Royal Statistical Society, Ser. B , 34 , 187 – 220 . [1682].
        Web of Science® Times Cited: 24367 |
        Go here for SFX
    Crowder, M. ( 2001 ): Classical Competing Risks. New York : Chapman and Hall/CRC. [1681].
        CrossRef |
        Go here for SFX
    Deng, Y. , J. M. Quigley , and R. Van Order ( 2000 ): “ Mortgage Terminations, Heterogeneity and the Exercise of Mortgage Options ,” Econometrica , 68 , 275 – 307 . [1676].
        Wiley Online Library |
        Web of Science® Times Cited: 86 |
        Go here for SFX
    Doll, R. ( 1991 ): “ Progress Against Cancer: An Epidemiologic Assessment ,” American Journal of Epidemiology , 134 , 675 – 688 . [1676].
        PubMed |
        CAS |
        Web of Science® Times Cited: 75 |
        Go here for SFX
    E xtramural C ommittee to A ssess M easures of P rogress A gainst C ancer ( 1990 ): “ Measurement of Progress Against Cancer ,” Journal of the National Cancer Institute , 82 , 825 – 835 . [1676].
        CrossRef |
        PubMed |
        Go here for SFX
    Flinn, C. J. , and J. J. Heckman ( 1982 ): “ New Methods for Analyzing Structural Models of Labor Force Dynamics ,” Journal of Econometrics , 18 , 115 – 168 . [1676].
        CrossRef |
        Web of Science® Times Cited: 133 |
        Go here for SFX
    Heckman, J. J. , and B. E. Honoré ( 1989 ): “ The Identifiability of the Competing Risks Model ,” Biometrika , 76 , 325 – 330 . [1681].
        CrossRef |
        Web of Science® Times Cited: 75 |
        Go here for SFX
    Hoel, D. G. , E. Ron , R. Carter , and K. Mabuchi ( 1993 ): “ Influence of Death Certificate Errors on Cancer Mortality Trends ,” Journal of the National Cancer Institute , 85 , 1063 – 1068 . [1678].
        CrossRef |
        PubMed |
        CAS |
        Web of Science® Times Cited: 49 |
        Go here for SFX
    Honoré, B. E. , and A. Lleras-Muney ( 2005 ): “ Bounds in Competing Risks and the War on Cancer ,”Unpublished Report, http://www.princeton.edu/~honore/papers/comp_risk.pdf . [1675].
        Go here for SFX
    Honoré, B. E. , and A. Lleras-Muney ( 2006 ): “ Supplement to ‘Bounds in Competing Risks Models and the War on Cancer ’,” Econometrica Supplementary Material , 74 , http://www.econometricsociety.org/ecta/supmat/5559.others . [1675].
        Go here for SFX
    HonoréÉ, B. E. , and E. T. Tamer ( 2006 ): “ Bounds on Parameters in Panel Dynamic Discrete Choice Models ,” Econometrica , 74 , 611 – 629 . [1684,1685].
        Wiley Online Library |
        Web of Science® Times Cited: 15 |
        Go here for SFX
    Horowitz, J. L. , and C. F. Manski ( 2000 ): “ Nonparametric Analysis of Randomized Experiments with Missing Covariate and Outcome Data ,” Journal of the American Statistical Association , 95 , 77 – 84 . [1676].
        CrossRef |
        Web of Science® Times Cited: 43 |
        Go here for SFX
    Howe, H. , P. Wingo , M. J. Thun , L. A. Ries , H. M. Rosenberg , E. G. Feigal , and B. K. Edwards ( 2001 ): “ Annual Report to the Nation on the Status of Cancer (1973-1998), Featuring Cancers with Recent Increasing Trends ,” Journal of the National Cancer Institute , 93 , 824 – 842 . [1675].
        CrossRef |
        PubMed |
        CAS |
        Web of Science® Times Cited: 420 |
        Go here for SFX
    Katz, L. F. , and B. D. Meyer ( 1990 ): “ Unemployment Insurance, Recall Expectations, and Unemployment Outcomes ,” Quarterly Journal of Economics , 105 , 973 – 1002 . [1676].
        CrossRef |
        Web of Science® Times Cited: 41 |
        Go here for SFX
    Llorca, J. , and M. Delgado-Rodriguez ( 2001 ): “ Competing Risks Analysis Using Markov Chains: Impact of Cerebrovascular and Ischaemic Heart Disease in Cancer Mortality ,” International Journal of Epidemiology , 30 , 99 – 101 . [1676].
        CrossRef |
        PubMed |
        CAS |
        Web of Science® Times Cited: 6 |
        Go here for SFX
    Lynch, H. T. , and A. De La Chapelle ( 2003 ): “ Hereditary Colorectal Cancer ,” New England Journal of Medicine , 348 , 919 – 932 . [1680].
        CrossRef |
        PubMed |
        CAS |
        Web of Science® Times Cited: 475 |
        Go here for SFX
    Mahajan, A. ( 2006 ): “ Identification and Estimation of Regression Models with Misclassification ,” Econometrica , 74 , 631 – 665 . [1676].
        Wiley Online Library |
        Web of Science® Times Cited: 8 |
        Go here for SFX
    Manski, C. ( 1990 ): “ Nonparametric Bounds on Treatment Effects ,” American Economic Review , 80 , 319 – 323 . [1676].
        Web of Science® Times Cited: 129 |
        Go here for SFX
    Manski, C. ( 1994 ): “ The Selection Problem ,”in Advances in Econometrics: Sixth World Congress , ed. by C.Sims , Econometric Society Monographs, Vol. 1 . New York : Cambridge University Press, Chap. 4, 143 – 170 . [1681].
        CrossRef |
        Go here for SFX
    Manski, C. ( 2003 ): Partial Identification of Probability Distributions. New York : Springer-Verlag. [1680].
        Go here for SFX
    Manski, C. F. , and E. Tamer ( 2002 ): “ Inference on Regressions with Interval Data on a Regressor or Outcome ,” Econometrica , 70 , 519 – 546 . [1676,1685].
        Wiley Online Library |
        Web of Science® Times Cited: 40 |
        Go here for SFX
    Meyer, B. D. ( 1990 ): “ Unemployment Insurance and Unemployment Spells ,” Econometrica , 58 , 757 – 782 . [1682].
        CrossRef |
        Web of Science® Times Cited: 370 |
        Go here for SFX
    Molinari, F. ( 2005 ): “ Partial Identification of Probability Distributions with Misclassified Data ,”Unpublished Report, Cornell University. [1676,1684].
    Nabel, E. G. ( 2003 ): “ Genomic Medicine: Cardiovascular Disease ,” New England Journal of Medicine , 349 , 60 – 72 . [1680].
        CrossRef |
        PubMed |
        CAS |
        Web of Science® Times Cited: 93 |
        Go here for SFX
    Peterson, A. V. ( 1976 ): “ Bounds for a Joint Distribution with Fixed Sub-Distribution Functions: Application to Competing Risks ,” Proceedings of the National Academy of Science , 73 , 11 – 13 . [1676,1680,1693].
        CrossRef |
        Web of Science® Times Cited: 84 |
        ADS |
        Go here for SFX
    Prentice, R. L. , and L. A. Gloeckler ( 1978 ): “ Regression Analysis of Grouped Survival Data with Application to Breast Cancer Data ,” Biometrics , 34 , 57 – 67 . [1682].
        CrossRef |
        PubMed |
        CAS |
        Web of Science® Times Cited: 414 |
        Go here for SFX
    Rothenberg, R. B. ( 1994 ): “ Competing Mortality and Progress Against Cancer ,” Epidemiology , 5 , 197 – 203 . [1676].
        CrossRef |
        PubMed |
        CAS |
        Web of Science® Times Cited: 9 |
        Go here for SFX
    Seer ( 2004 ): “ Surveillance, Epidemiology, and End Results (SEER) Program ( http://www.seer.cancer.gov ) SEER*Stat Database: Incidence—SEER 9 Regs Public—Use, Nov 2003 Sub (1973-2001) ,” Surveillance Research Program , Cancer Statistics Branch, DCCPS, National Cancer Institute. [1675].
        Web of Science® Times Cited: 24 |
        Go here for SFX
    Slud, E. , and D. Byar ( 1988 ): “ How Dependent Causes of Death Can Make Risk Factors Appear Protective ,” Biometrics , 44 , 265 – 269 . [1680].
        CrossRef |
        PubMed |
        CAS |
        Web of Science® Times Cited: 25 |
        Go here for SFX
    Tsiatis, A. ( 1975 ): “ A Nonidentifiability Aspect of the Problem of Competing Risks ,” Proceedings of the National Academy of Sciences , 72 , 20 – 22 . [1679].
        CrossRef |
        PubMed |
        CAS |
        Web of Science® Times Cited: 268 |
        ADS |
        Go here for SFX
    U.S. B ureau of the C ensus ( 1970 ): “ Census of Population. 1970 General Population Characteristics, United States Summary ,”Final Report PC(1)-B1, U.S. Bureau of the Census, Washington , DC . [1677].
        Go here for SFX
    Vaupel, J. W. , and A. I. Yashin ( 1999 ): “ Cancer Rates over Age, Time and Place: Insights from Stochastic Models of Heterogenous Populations ,”Working Paper 1999-006, Max Plank Institute for Demographic Research. [1679,1680].
    Welch, H. G. , L. M. Schwartz , and S. Woloshin ( 2000 ): “ Are Increasing 5-Year Survival Rates Evidence of Success Against Cancer Journal of the American Medical Association , 283 , 2975 – 2978 . [1676].
        CrossRef |
        PubMed |
        CAS |
        Web of Science® Times Cited: 140 |
        Go here for SFX
    Wohlfart, J. , and P. K. Andersen ( 2001 ): “ Commentary: Secular Trends in the Context of Competing Risks ,” International Journal of Epidemiology , 30 , 102 – 103 . [1676].
        CrossRef |
        PubMed |
        Web of Science® Times Cited: 1 |
        Go here for SFX
    Wooster, R. , and B. L. Weber ( 2003 ): “ Genomic Medicine: Breast and Ovarian Cancer ,” New England Journal of Medicine , 348 , 2339 – 2347 . [1680].
        CrossRef |
        PubMed |
        CAS |
        Web of Science® Times Cited: 170 |
        Go here for SFX

Related content
Articles related to the one you are viewing

Please enable Javascript to view the related content of this article.
Citing Literature

    Number of times cited : 30

    1 Taha Hossein Rashidi , Kouros Mohammadian , Application of a nested trivariate copula structure in a competing duration hazard-based vehicle transaction decision model, Transportmetrica A: Transport Science , 2016 , 1 CrossRef
    2 Martin Burda , Matthew Harding , Jerry Hausman , A Bayesian Semiparametric Competing Risk Model with Unobserved Heterogeneity, Journal of Applied Econometrics , 2015 , 30 , 3, 353 Wiley Online Library
    3 Daniel Howdon , Andrew M. Jones , A discrete latent factor model for smoking, cancer and mortality, Economics & Human Biology , 2015 , 18 , 57 CrossRef
    4 Mårten Palme , Emilia Simeonova , Does women's education affect breast cancer risk and survival? Evidence from a population based social experiment in education, Journal of Health Economics , 2015 , 42 , 115 CrossRef
    5 Jason R. Blevins , Non-standard rates of convergence of criterion-function-based set estimators for binary response models, The Econometrics Journal , 2015 , 18 , 2, 172 Wiley Online Library
    6 Isaac D. Swensen , Substance-abuse treatment and mortality, Journal of Public Economics , 2015 , 122 , 13 CrossRef
    7 Frank R. Lichtenberg , The impact of pharmaceutical innovation on premature cancer mortality in Canada, 2000–2011, International Journal of Health Economics and Management , 2015 , 15 , 3, 339 CrossRef
    8 Melanie Arntz , Simon M. S. Lo , Ralf A. Wilke , Bounds analysis of competing risks: a non-parametric evaluation of the effect of unemployment benefits on migration, Empirical Economics , 2014 , 46 , 1, 199 CrossRef
    9 Tatiana Komarova , Binary choice models with discrete regressors: Identification and misspecification, Journal of Econometrics , 2013 , 177 , 1, 14 CrossRef
    10 Dimitrina S. Dimitrova , Steven Haberman , Vladimir K. Kaishev , Dependent competing risks: Cause elimination and its impact on survival, Insurance: Mathematics and Economics , 2013 , 53 , 2, 464 CrossRef
    11 Thierry Magnac , Identification partielle : méthodes et conséquences pour les applications empiriques, L'Actualité économique , 2013 , 89 , 4, 233 CrossRef
    12 Sokbae Lee , Arthur Lewbel , NONPARAMETRIC IDENTIFICATION OF ACCELERATED FAILURE TIME COMPETING RISKS MODELS, Econometric Theory , 2013 , 29 , 05, 905 CrossRef
    13 Gary Y. C. Yeung , Gerard J. van den Berg , Maarten Lindeboom , France R. M. Portrait , The impact of early-life economic conditionson cause-specific mortality during adulthood, Journal of Population Economics , 2013 CrossRef
    14 Yanqin Fan , Sang Soo Park , Confidence intervals for the quantile of treatment effects in randomized experiments, Journal of Econometrics , 2012 , 167 , 2, 330 CrossRef
    15 Hiram Beltrán-Sánchez , Samir Soneji , A unifying framework for assessing changes in life expectancy associated with changes in mortality: The case of violent deaths, Theoretical Population Biology , 2011 , 80 , 1, 38 CrossRef
    16 Christian N. Brinch , Non-parametric identification of the mixed proportional hazards model with interval-censored durations, The Econometrics Journal , 2011 , 14 , 2, 343 Wiley Online Library
    17 Patrick Bayer , Shakeeb Khan , Christopher Timmins , Nonparametric Identification and Estimation in a Roy Model With Common Nonpecuniary Returns, Journal of Business & Economic Statistics , 2011 , 29 , 2, 201 CrossRef
    18 Michael E. Chernew , Joseph P. Newhouse , , 2011 , 2 , 1 CrossRef
    19 Darius N. Lakdawalla , Eric C. Sun , Anupam B. Jena , Carolina M. Reyes , Dana P. Goldman , Tomas J. Philipson , An economic evaluation of the war on cancer, Journal of Health Economics , 2010 , 29 , 3, 333 CrossRef
    20 Michael Chernew , Health Care Spending Growth: Can We Avoid Fiscal Armageddon?, Inquiry , 2010 , 47 , 4, 285 CrossRef

View all 30 citations
Advertisement

    PDF
    PDF
    Info
    References

Close article support pane

    Wiley

    Browse Publications
    Browse by Subject
    Resources

    Help & Support
    Cookies & Privacy
    Terms & Conditions

    About Us
    Wiley Job Network
    Advertisers & Agents

Powered by Wiley Online Library

Copyright © 1999 - 2017 John Wiley & Sons, Inc. All Rights Reserved
